Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainability Volume 38, Issue 2 | February 2025 Pages 147-162
Abstract: This meta-analysis synthesizes findings from 284 peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2024 to assess the multifaceted impacts of climate change on global agricultural productivity. Our comprehensive review reveals a complex, region-specific pattern of effects that defies simplistic generalizations.
The analysis demonstrates that rising global temperatures have precipitated divergent agricultural outcomes across different geographical zones. Temperate regions in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly those between 40° and 60° latitude, have experienced modest productivity gains averaging 8-12% over the past decade. These improvements stem primarily from extended growing seasons, which now average 18 days longer than historical norms, and from enhanced photosynthetic efficiency at moderately elevated CO₂ concentrations. However, these benefits are increasingly offset by the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including unseasonable frosts, intense precipitation, and prolonged drought periods.
Conversely, tropical and subtropical agricultural systems have suffered disproportionate negative impacts. Regions within 30° of the equator have recorded productivity declines ranging from 15% to 31%, with the most severe reductions occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The principal drivers of these declines include heat stress during critical growth stages, altered precipitation patterns that have disrupted traditional farming calendars, and accelerated soil degradation resulting from intensified erosion and nutrient depletion. Particularly concerning is the finding that staple crops such as rice, maize, and wheat exhibit markedly reduced yields when exposed to temperatures exceeding 30°C during flowering periods, even when water availability remains adequate.
Our analysis also examined adaptive capacity—the degree to which agricultural systems can adjust to changing conditions through technological innovation, crop diversification, and modified management practices. High-income nations demonstrate substantially greater adaptive capacity, with 67% of surveyed farms in these regions having implemented at least three climate adaptation strategies, including drought-resistant cultivars, precision irrigation systems, and crop rotation modifications. In contrast, only 23% of farms in low-income countries have adopted even a single adaptation measure, primarily due to constraints in capital availability, technological access, and institutional support.
The economic implications of these trends are profound. We project that, absent substantial policy interventions and technological breakthroughs, climate-induced agricultural disruptions will contribute to a 3.2% annual increase in global food prices through 2040, with implications for food security that will be most acutely felt in regions already experiencing chronic malnutrition. Furthermore, our modeling suggests that climate change will necessitate a fundamental reconfiguration of global agricultural trade patterns, as traditional exporters in tropical regions become net importers while temperate zones assume greater production responsibilities.
These findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated international action to simultaneously mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and enhance agricultural resilience through targeted investments in research, infrastructure, and farmer education programs, particularly in the most vulnerable regions.